Western dilemmasįrom a broader point of view, it might seem that Vladimir Putin has lost in any case: the war in Ukraine has sparked unrest in Russia, it has reinvigorated NATO, European powers, especially Germany, are giving up their pacifism, and the economic sanctions against Russia are considerably weakening its international position. This is because 21 st century Russia does not have the stature of the USSR, and the days of Putin’s regime are numbered. While discussing the possible scenarios with a Ukrainian colleague, we could agree on one point: the Ukrainians will not have to wait for reunification as long as the Germans did. The big difference between Ukraine and Syria is that this time the West is not averting its eyes. At the same time, Russia uses humanitarian or diplomatic proposals to divide and disorient resisting forces, and attempt to legitimize its military operations. To break the population’s will to resist, the Russian military targets public places like hospitals and schools. In both countries, Russia lays siege to and bombards entire neighborhoods -in Ukraine we are only seeing the beginning of this process. In Syria, Russia was fighting so-called " terrorists", in Ukraine, it allegedly intervenes against " Nazis". However, in Syria as well as in Ukraine, Russia employs a similar strategy of demonizing its adversary. The two situations differ in many respects, notably because Russia supports the Syrian authorities while it wants to eliminate the Ukrainian government. Let's add another dimension to the Syria/Ukraine parallel. Both options are not mutually exclusive, since it is likely that Moscow will make Ukraine's non-membership of NATO a precondition for a cease-fire. They do not concern a direct settlement of the conflict. The current peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are most likely about humanitarian measures and a cease-fire. It is important to note that it is up to Volodymyr Zelensky to decide when to stop the fight. This would certainly concern the south of Ukraine, at least until Odessa. It is likely that the Russian dictator will only agree to stop his military operations if he receives territorial pledges in return. Faced with the growing economic and human costs of his invasion, Putin ends up backing down.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |